Thursday, February 9, 2012

European Central Bank in a fix over Greek debt by Joseph Stiglitz


This article ties-in neatly with The Economist: Argentina’s debt default Gauchos and gadflies http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/2012/02/economist-argentinas-debt-default.html I’ve read it several times and gain more insights every time I read it…

Creditors’ decade-long battle with Argentina shows just how tangled sovereign defaults can be Oct 22nd 2011 NEW YORK http://www.economist.com/node/21533453


AS GREECE flirts with disaster and several other European countries buckle under heavy debts, creditors’ experience with Argentina should serve as a sobering reminder about the mess that can follow a sovereign default. A decade after the Latin American country welshed on $81 billion, disgruntled creditors are still chasing their money. The litigation, and Argentina’s defiance in the face of judgments against it, complicate its plans to return to international capital markets.

Argentina’s default, after a severe economic crisis, sparked social unrest and runs on banks. It subsequently presented creditors with a take-it-or-leave-it offer of 35 cents on the dollar. They considered this derisory: previously, delinquent countries had typically paid 50-60 cents. But the government stood firm and roughly three-quarters of the bondholders took part in a debt exchange in 2005. More joined in 2010, bringing the total to 93%... http://www.economist.com/node/21533453





The ECB may be putting the interests of the few banks that have written credit-default swaps before those of Greece, Europe's taxpayers, and creditors


Nothing illustrates better the political crosscurrents, special interests, and shortsighted economics now at play in Europe than the debate over the restructuring of Greece's sovereign debt. Germany insists on a deep restructuring – at least a 50% "haircut" for bondholders – whereas the European Central Bank insists that any debt restructuring must be voluntary.

In the old days – think of the 1980s Latin American debt crisis – one could get creditors, mostly large banks, in a small room, and hammer out a deal, aided by some cajoling, or even arm-twisting, by governments and regulators eager for things to go smoothly. But, with the advent of debt securitisation, creditors have become far more numerous, and include hedge funds and other investors over whom regulators and governments have little sway.

Moreover, "innovation" in financial markets has made it possible for securities owners to be insured, meaning that they have a seat at the table, but no "skin in the game". They do have interests: they want to collect on their insurance, and that means that the restructuring must be a "credit event" – tantamount to a default. The ECB's insistence on "voluntary" restructuring – that is, avoidance of a credit event – has placed the two sides at loggerheads. The irony is that the regulators have allowed the creation of this dysfunctional system… http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/feb/06/european-central-bank-greek-debt

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Now that the Super Bowl is over there may be no better time to focus some attention on the continuing Greek tragedy that is unfolding over in the economic Twilight Zone, known as the Eurozone.

There is a growing sense that Americans, somewhat exhausted after a decade of foreign wars and international conflict, have grown increasingly isolationist in their worldview.

That may be a good thing to a certain extent. The United States cannot continue to pay the price of maintaining the planet’s police force.

While other nations concentrate that portion of its gross national product to strengthening its industrial base, quality of life and economy – think Germany – that would otherwise go to defense spending if it were not for the United States, our nation continues to wallow in an economic tar pit.

Just when our nation’s economy cheers up a bit, things threaten to get worse quickly.

As we head for the seclusion of the isolationist, padded panic room, it might be a good idea to take a look over our shoulder and keep an eye on Greece – and Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy… http://www.thetentacle.com/ShowArticle.cfm?mydocid=4907

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I’ve read it several times and gain more insights every time I read it…

Creditors’ decade-long battle with Argentina shows just how tangled sovereign defaults can be Oct 22nd 2011 NEW YORK http://www.economist.com/node/21533453

AS GREECE flirts with disaster and several other European countries buckle under heavy debts, creditors’ experience with Argentina should serve as a sobering reminder about the mess that can follow a sovereign default. A decade after the Latin American country welshed on $81 billion, disgruntled creditors are still chasing their money. The litigation, and Argentina’s defiance in the face of judgments against it, complicate its plans to return to international capital markets.

Argentina’s default, after a severe economic crisis, sparked social unrest and runs on banks. It subsequently presented creditors with a take-it-or-leave-it offer of 35 cents on the dollar. They considered this derisory: previously, delinquent countries had typically paid 50-60 cents. But the government stood firm and roughly three-quarters of the bondholders took part in a debt exchange in 2005. More joined in 2010, bringing the total to 93%... http://www.economist.com/node/21533453




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